Looking at the schedule, it's not difficult to make a case for a ten win season. The Trojans *should* be favorites in all of their home games save Oregon, and one would be inclined to think they'll win at least one of their tougher road games (@OSU, @Stanford, @Arizona). But I'm a pessimist, this USC squad lacks depth and is an injury or two away from semi-mediocrity. I'm going with 9-4, which is minimum Coach Lane Kiffin needs to reach to keep the fanbase from rumbling too loudly (sanctions will be the built-in excuse). Anything less than 9-4 and the Kifmeister will be under real pressure in 2011. He might be feeling the heat regardless of record if the NCAA comes after him for a variety of recruiting violations committed at Tennessee in 2008. Remember, Mike Garrett hired Kiffin, not Pat Haden. Two years of near .500 ball and/or more NCAA banhammering will be all the excuses Haden needs for dumping Coach Lunch Money.
As for questions, I have two major ones.
First, will the defense be improved? Last year's team was by far the worst of Pete Carroll's tenure, marred with poor linebacker play and an underperforming Taylor Mays. Monte Kiffin will obviously run the Tampa-2, which isn't altogether much different than what Carroll ran. But I'm curious to see the (almost entirely) new secondary. The linebacking corp has been shaken up, with Denard Kennard (funny name) supplanting Chris Gallippo (who I thought was really the only decent player in that unit) at MLB. Malcolm Smith returns at OLB, and has earned high praise from Monte, which is odd because Malcolm, quite frankly, sucked last year. Looked undersized and was constantly out of position.
Second, will the offense have an identity? Honestly, USC hasn't had a real offensive identity since 2005. And that identity was simply, "we're going to do whatever we want, whenever we want. And you can't stop us." The Norm Chow teams were always a pass first team that used to run to close out opponents in the second half. Once Kif and Sark took over, things switched to the "you can't stop us" philosophy, which works great when you've got Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White, etc. etc. But once 2006 hit, and you're left with noodle-armed John David Booty, things look mighty different. Suddenly you can't do anything you want, and suddenly it looks like you have no idea *what* you want. Suddenly it looks desperately like "we're going to try anything and stick with what works." Not a way to impose your will on an opponent. You might say 2009, wtih Jeremy Bates at the offensive controls, was better. USC felt more like a conservative run-first team, but that probably had just as much to do with protecting a freshman quarterback as it did any sort of overall philosophy. So that leaves us with the new year. It's hard to say where Kiffin will go. His stints at the Volunteers and the Raiders hint that he'd like to go pass first, but lack of quality personnel at both stops seemed to make him extremely conservative. My bet here is it all rests on Matt Barkley and the receiving corps. If they can execute, then we'll see something wide open and agressive (see second half 2007 Rose Bowl). Otherwise, we're going to see a lot of running plays on first and second down. I don't care either way, I'd just like to see USC adopt a plan, stick with it, and enforce its will.
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