Friday, September 17, 2010

USC vs Minnysoota expectations

How depressing was the Trojans *victory* over Virginia last week? So depressing I've waited five days to write a word about it. And even still I'm not going to devote an entire post to it, so bad the taint.

Unimpressive was the word of the day, and while I could explore problems just about everywhere (props to Coach Lunch Money grimly assessing "no one played well tonight" in his post game comments on live TV), I'm going to focus on penalties. USC had a lot of them, of all kinds and varieties. Consistently good teams usually don't commit a lot of penalties. Pete's USC teams were flagged a bunch, but a lot of those were the results of aggressive play (roughing the passer, etc.). Besides, those teams generally had a offense good enough to overcome those mistakes. Third and 26 for 2005 USC? Puh-leeze. Off tackle to He Who Shall Not Be Named, gain of 62 (this happened against UCLA, I believe). If my long career of sitting on a couch and watching college football has taught me anything, it's that penalties totally and completely fall on the coaches. It's their responsibility to run the drills, teach the players, and to communicate clearly in-game. Paul Hackett's USC teams were a penalty nightmare. One of the first things I noticed once Pete took over? No more dumb delay of games, less false starts, less holding. It's the coaching, stupid.

If there's two things I like about Coach Lunch Money, it's his absolute candor and lack of humor. He's willing to list his team's deficiencies in public, and he's also incapable of smiling (which might be more effective if he looked a little older than say, 12). I'm certain he's attempting to address the penalty problem. The question is will the team listen? Do they respect Little Coach Frowny-Face and his mummified father? I don't call Kiffin 'Coach Lunch Money' because it's my cute nickname. It was actually what USC players used to call him behind his back when he was here mid-decade (presumably because he resembles a kid who just had his lunch money stolen, or something. It's more fun if you can imagine Fresno State head coach Pat Hill and his handlebar moustache doing the stealing) . There's already an established lack of respect for the guy. Now granted that was years ago, and granted he wasn't el jefe yet. But it's still out there, I will be pointing to it again and again if this penalty problem persists.

As for Minnesota this weekend, fool on you if you continue to bet on USC to cover the point spread. I'm not even sure I know the spread on this game, but I'd take the Gophers even if it was like four (okay, not really...maybe eight). USC just isn't USC anymore, and it's really time for this team to establish it's own identity. With Wazzu up next week, it's going to be a very long season if this team doesn't improve these next two games.

In other news, He Who Shall Not Be Named gave up his Heisman this week, supposedly in order to prevent it being taken from him. I have a lot to say on this subject, but today I'll just say this. Giving back the trophy is the first preemptive thing HWSNBN has done for the duration of this scandal. If he and his parents had preemptively said no to free lodging and travel accommodations, OR had preemptively paid off their so-called benefactors (which is all those supposed sports marketers ever wanted) before they ran crying to Yahoo! Sports, none of this would have ever happened. So yeah, way to go.

Friday, September 10, 2010

USC vs. Virginia expectations

Now that I've gotten Yellfish Nation off to such a rousing start it's time to slam on the brakes and halt any and all momentum I may have had with this thing.

I'm out of town for a wedding this weekend and most likely won't be able to watch the game until sometime Sunday night (provided my DVR doesn't decide that Sopranos repeats are of higher recording importance). I'm not going to be that annoying guy who tries to stay away from any and all sports news until I get home. Too hard to do that nowadays. I'm sure I'll check the score and maybe watch SportsCenter Saturday night to catch any highlights (being a late game against a lame opponent, we might actually register a three play highlight package).

Anyways, Virginia is, like Hawaii, not a good team. Currently the spread favors USC by about 20. Based on last week's dreadful defensive performance, you'd be inclined to bet against the Trojans. However, I have a sneaky suspicion that the Trojan D will put up a better and more consistent effort against the Cavaliers. Really I just think the defense will have a much easier time with a less athletic, pro-style Virginia offense than they did with a fast, spread attack. That said, the Trojans will give up points. Due to traitors (err, um, I mean 'transfers') and general lack of depth, Coach Lunch Money publicly declared his intentions to pull his starters early. If this goes like last week did that means pulling first teamers once we have about a three score lead. Which means we'll have guys who can't even start for our semi-cruddy defense not-tackling. Wonderful. Maybe the USC student section should stop chanting "HURRY UP AND LOSE" to the opposing team and start yelling "HURRY UP AND WIN" to their team.

The only other conceivable angle of interest is the debut of freshman phenom Dillon Baxter, aka the Next-Next Reggie Bush. Or, as I guess it must be post-sanctions, the Next-Next He Who Must Not Be Named. The original Next HWMNBN was Fumbles McKnight, and look how amazing he turned out. Anyways, Next-Next lit it up during spring ball, only to get suspended for the opener for getting caught in the vicinity of marijuana (or something vaguely nefarious like that). We'll see how this goes, I'd be shocked if gets more than ten touches on Saturday, but hopefully that'll be enough to put on a good show.

Again this week, there's not a whole lot of good that can come of this game for the Trojans. Anything but a resounding victory will cause handwringing and overreaction.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Hawaii Postmortem

A little late for this, I know. But hey, I'm a busy dude.

My first reaction to last night's Trojan victory? USC should replace Fresno State in the WAC next year. The defense will fit right in.

Or, in simple Frankenstein terms...offense...goooood....defense.....baaaaaaaaad.

I'm not going to completely overpraise the offense, because let's face it, Hawaii sucks. Matt Barkley looked very sharp and threw 5 TDs. Marc Tyler looked like a more nimble Stafon Johnson and was vastly superior to Allen Bradford and C.J. Gable, who both looked indecisive at times. Ronald Johnson's put on some weight, and if he can stay healthy, will have a great year as the number one receiver. True freshman Robert Woods, starting across from, looked great, as well. Spectacular even, considering he's a true frosh.

I could talk about Kiffin going for three 2-point conversions, but what's the point? He's evil. I'm a USC alum and admit, by hiring him, we've basically become the college equivalent of the Raiders. Big, cartoony bad guys. Kiffin should grow a dastardly moustache he can twirl menacingly whenever we draw a late hit penalty.

Continuing a trend from last year, the defensive back seven were terrible (and the front four only so-so). Who's doing the teaching here? Apparently no one's ever told the players about the whole 'not looking for the ball and running into receivers will always, ALWAYS, get you flagged.' thing. And yeah, the tackling was horrid, but what do you expect when you don't do that in practice. Again, explain to me why Denard Kennard (funny name) is playing the Derrick Brooks part in this defense and not Chris Gallippo? At least Gallippo can make plays.

In the end, USC surprised on both sides of the ball. All I had read and heard was how much further ahead the defense was in practice. How the offense couldn't get anything going against the defensive starters. Funny. If the defense doesn't shape up, the Trojans will have to score 30+ a game to win (and 50+ to beat Oregon).

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Week 1 expectations

Tonight the Trojans face off against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (or is it just Warriors now? Rainbows? Timmy Changs?). The spread is 19.5 last I checked which seems low. Hawaii has a June Jones hangover (does he still rock Hawaiin shirts now that he coaches SMU?) and is a bad team even by WAC standards. The last three times USC played Hawaii they scored over 60 points (2003, 2005, 1999). That's right, even a Paul Hackett team put up 60. So the spread tonight seems a little small. I'm not necessarily expecting the Trojans to put up 60, but I do expect them to cover easily.

For evaluation purposes, nothing good can come from this game. Either USC scores more than 40 and we all go "well, Hawaii sucks, so big deal," or USC struggles and we all think the sky is falling (see USC lackluster 2007 home opener against Idaho, never before has 38-10 looked so incredibly inept).

2010 Questions and Predictions

Looking at the schedule, it's not difficult to make a case for a ten win season. The Trojans *should* be favorites in all of their home games save Oregon, and one would be inclined to think they'll win at least one of their tougher road games (@OSU, @Stanford, @Arizona). But I'm a pessimist, this USC squad lacks depth and is an injury or two away from semi-mediocrity. I'm going with 9-4, which is minimum Coach Lane Kiffin needs to reach to keep the fanbase from rumbling too loudly (sanctions will be the built-in excuse). Anything less than 9-4 and the Kifmeister will be under real pressure in 2011. He might be feeling the heat regardless of record if the NCAA comes after him for a variety of recruiting violations committed at Tennessee in 2008. Remember, Mike Garrett hired Kiffin, not Pat Haden. Two years of near .500 ball and/or more NCAA banhammering will be all the excuses Haden needs for dumping Coach Lunch Money.

As for questions, I have two major ones.

First, will the defense be improved? Last year's team was by far the worst of Pete Carroll's tenure, marred with poor linebacker play and an underperforming Taylor Mays. Monte Kiffin will obviously run the Tampa-2, which isn't altogether much different than what Carroll ran. But I'm curious to see the (almost entirely) new secondary. The linebacking corp has been shaken up, with Denard Kennard (funny name) supplanting Chris Gallippo (who I thought was really the only decent player in that unit) at MLB. Malcolm Smith returns at OLB, and has earned high praise from Monte, which is odd because Malcolm, quite frankly, sucked last year. Looked undersized and was constantly out of position.

Second, will the offense have an identity? Honestly, USC hasn't had a real offensive identity since 2005. And that identity was simply, "we're going to do whatever we want, whenever we want. And you can't stop us." The Norm Chow teams were always a pass first team that used to run to close out opponents in the second half. Once Kif and Sark took over, things switched to the "you can't stop us" philosophy, which works great when you've got Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White, etc. etc. But once 2006 hit, and you're left with noodle-armed John David Booty, things look mighty different. Suddenly you can't do anything you want, and suddenly it looks like you have no idea *what* you want. Suddenly it looks desperately like "we're going to try anything and stick with what works." Not a way to impose your will on an opponent. You might say 2009, wtih Jeremy Bates at the offensive controls, was better. USC felt more like a conservative run-first team, but that probably had just as much to do with protecting a freshman quarterback as it did any sort of overall philosophy. So that leaves us with the new year. It's hard to say where Kiffin will go. His stints at the Volunteers and the Raiders hint that he'd like to go pass first, but lack of quality personnel at both stops seemed to make him extremely conservative. My bet here is it all rests on Matt Barkley and the receiving corps. If they can execute, then we'll see something wide open and agressive (see second half 2007 Rose Bowl). Otherwise, we're going to see a lot of running plays on first and second down. I don't care either way, I'd just like to see USC adopt a plan, stick with it, and enforce its will.

What is this?

A place to vent and share my observations about the USC football program. Nothing more, nothing less. I've been meaning to set this blog up for months, but am only now getting around to it. Not like there was anything interesting going on this offseason anyway...oh...yeah...Seattle, Kiffin, Baxter, Garrett, Student Athlete A, McNair, Haden, etc. Okay, so this has been the most eventful offseason the Trojans have ever seen, and it's over now (well, except for the sanctions). It's time for football. T-minus 20 hours until the 2010 season opens.